F1 Predictions: Spain

[Craig.]

I wont lie. I am very happy with that quali result.
Ferrari are nearly there. They have the next big update in Turkey which will be the proper diffusor. The new updates have brought them from about 8 tenths to a full second behind, to now about 2 tenths down so its a huge jump.
Too bad the pit wall still havent learned.

[TSC.]

Ferrari are nearly there. They have the next big update in Turkey which will be the proper diffusor.

I appreciate that the smaller teams will struggle to make changes following the diffuser ruling, but surely a team with as much experience, resources & budget as Ferrari should be capable of wheeling out a decent diffuser quicker than that?

[Craig.]

Not really. Because it has required a whole new car in essence. Not only that its two new cars because Kimi has a car that is several Kg's lighter in the chassis than the car Massa is using. They couldn't get two tubs ready for spain and Massa doesn't need the lighter car, so they had to make him a new car using the old tub to get him the new updates. To get the new diffuser on the car, they have had to make a new gear box, rear suspension, smaller rear end packaging for the engine, they're already working at such a pace that the cars and parts are now being introduced upto 50% quicker than before. So they've done a brilliant job of getting a brand new car on track and near the front in 8 weeks.
Just look at Mclaren and Renault, they were both testing the double diffusor back in pre-season testing, introduced it as soon as the FIA declared it legal, and have not made any progress forward. I think Ferrari and Red Bull have decided they wont be just throwing things on the car until they are as certain as they can be that'll work.
Red Bull have the hardest job of the lot. As always Newey has chosen a very complex and difficult suspension setup in the rear using a pullrod system instead of the pushrod suspension everyone else uses. Because of that, red bull need to completely redesign the rear end to accomodate the new floor/diffusor and to keep the suspension they have now. They are expecting it to be Turkey before even considering running it.
No more inseason testing means the days of quickly throwing it on the  car and seeing if it works are gone. Some people like it, I personally think its a step backwards. Three inseason tests would have worked, that was the original plan for the year. Barcelona, Silverstone, Monza. So all the money in the world means nothing now if your wind tunnel doesn't get it right. See Mclaren/BMW.

[TSC.]

Makes a lot of sense Craig. To be honest I hadn't wasted a lot of time thinking about it, but now that you've pointed it out, it's obvious that it requires more than just whacking a diffuser on with sellotape.  :-[

[Craig.]

It varies a lot from car to car.  Those who built their cars to accomodate the chance that the diffusor would be legal Mclaren/Renault, Force India, have been able to do just that. Stick it on and get the benefits from it. The down sides for them are the cars in general are poor and compromised by that allowance in other areas. In both Renault and Mclarens case their rear suspension and rear wings are the areas that are letting them down and not providing the sort of grip and downforce they need to use the Double diffusor to its best.

[Craig.]

Fuel weights are out.

01 McLaren Mercedes Lewis Hamilton 683.0*
02 McLaren Mercedes Heikki Kovalainen 657.0*
03 Ferrari Felipe Massa 655.0
04 Ferrari Kimi R

[MWISimmer]

...Kimi has a car that is several Kg's lighter in the chassis than the car Massa is using..

Because he can't stay off the ice-cream..

[Craig.]

And regular coke

[cspyro21]

Fantastic, I've missed the predictions again.  >:(

Never mind, there's always next time? :-/

[Craig.]

LMAO, Jordan gets dumber every week. "suspend Kimi, Schumacher could do a better job". The only reason he wants Schumi driving is so he can waffle on about how he gave him his first drive ignoring the fact Mercedes actually paid the teams budget for the Spa weekend Schumi drove for them.

[expat]

Show me [size=8]most of [/size]the points

Matt

[C]

I'm not impressed by Jenson's time at all. Its going to be a long day for him tomorrow.

You were saying?



Could Rob Smedley have dropped Massa any more hints today. If he'd surrendered 4th place a few laps earlier he may have finished 5th. I was surprised they didn't tell him to let Vettel pass.

[Craig.]

I'm sorry but there was an element of luck involved for Jenson today. Firstly the strategy switch for him but not Rubens, tough to say whether that was a team orders thing but either way it was clear that 3 stops wouldn't work after only 10 laps, to much traffic still no overtaking. Vettel getting held up behind Massa, There was a good chance Vettel could have won it. Jenson screwed the start and almost his race up and I do feel for Rubens, but thats racing. Jenson played the hand he was given perfectly and he got another win.
What got me was why Felipe didn't use his KERS at the start until he was in 6th gear and almost at the corner, the practice starts he'd been doing all had him engaging it at 4th gear. With it he could have been 2nd and maybe even first into turn 1. Again had he been in front of Jenson, holding him up and letting rubens run off.  I'm happy for Jenson, I really am, however this wasn't the easiest of races for him.

[MWISimmer]

Craig.

Get your head out of the sand and accept that Ferrari are crap this season.

Rob.

 ;D

[Craig.]

That would be the same ferrari who have gained 8 tenths in one update?
Or I could be a Mclaren fan who gave up from the start and now their drivers are following suit in a rather public way.
I dont expect the title, I don't expect the constructors, but much like 2005 I refuse to give up the belief that they can cause problems for those who are in line for the title.

It's safe to say 3 more wins and the title is Jenson's, I would be happy for that, if ever there was a guy who had, so much bad luck and poor timing its him. However because of the way they are going about it, you have to look for more interesting battles further back. That basically means who's quickest to catch up.