
Flying by the seat of one's pants...

Decide a course of action as you go along, using your own initiative and perceptions rather than a pre-determined plan or mechanical aids.
Origin
This is early aviation parlance. Aircraft initially had few navigation aids and flying was accomplished by means of the pilot's judgment. The term emerged in the 1930s and was first widely used in reports of Douglas Corrigan's flight from the USA to Ireland in 1938.
That flight was reported in many US newspapers of the day, including this piece, entitled 'Corrigan Flies By The Seat Of His Pants', in The Edwardsville Intelligencer, 19th July 1938:
"Douglas Corrigan was described as an aviator 'who flies by the seat of his pants' today by a mechanic who helped him rejuvinate the plane which airport men have now nicknamed the 'Spirit of $69.90'. The old flying expression of 'flies by the seat of his trousers' was explained by Larry Conner, means going aloft without instruments, radio or other such luxuries."
Two days before this report Corrigan had submitted a flight plan to fly from Brooklyn to California. He had previously had a plan for a trans-Atlantic flight rejected (presumably on the grounds that the 'Spirit of $69.60 wasn't considered up to the job). His subsequent 29 hour flight ended in Dublin, Ireland. He claimed that his compasses had failed. He didn't openly admit it but it was widely assumed that he had ignored the rejection of his flight plan and deliberately flown east rather than west. He was thereafter known as 'Wrong Way Corrigan' and starred as himself in the 1938 movie The Flying Irishman.
The 'old flying expression' quoted above (although it can't have been very old in 1938) that refers to trousers rather than pants does suggest that the phrase was originally British and crossed the Atlantic (the right way) prior to becoming 'flies by the seat of one's pants'.
Flying by the seat of one's pants most likely originated some time between 1909 and the middle of the First World War...1914 to 1918.
ALSO:
It comes from the sensation of position and movement transmitted to a person's body through the main contact to a fast-moving vehicle. It involves heightened awareness, bought on by adrenaline, where all relative information seems to pass through one's buttocks in preparation for evacuating them.
Gil Lambert, Bundaberg
Before aircraft had instruments, pilots had to rely on their innate sense of balance to detect changes in movements of the plane, transferred to his body by the contact with the seat. This is probably why there was an early change from the Wright Flyer's prone pilot position.
Harry Rowlands, Roseville
Until the development of the "slip/skid indicator" towards the end of WWI, pilots had no instrument to help them turn efficiently - with the aircraft banked but neither "slipping" towards the lower (inside) wing nor "skidding" (with the tail hanging out) towards the outside of the turn. If the aircraft slipped, their bottoms would be sliding "downhill" in their seats. If they skidded, a slight G-force pushed them "uphill
Cheers...Happy Landings...Doug