What if D-Day had failed?

[Professor Brensec]

Well, it was only a theoretical outcome. But I must point out, that in January 1945 the output of weapons in German factories was more than four times that in 1940. So bombing was not ruining their industry.

Agreed, mate. They were turning out far more than they were in 1940, but tanks, planes, guns etc, not to mention men, were being destroyed, just on the Eastern Front, at a rate far exceeding that in 1940. And that, they couldn't keep up with. Even with the forced labour and the moving of vital installations underground etc, they still couldn't keep the flow of 'decent' weapons and equipment to anything more than a 'trickle'. And of course, there was the fuel problem. The failure of D-Day wouldn't have changed that in any way.

By June '44, the Russians had pushed to Poland. They had their T34's in HUGE numbers, which were more than a match for anything less than a Panther or Tiger (which were in such short supply that they were being madly shuffled from one area of the front to another, just to try and plug up or reinforce areas which were breaking or weakening). So there was absolutely no hope of the Germans being able to get at any oil fields or reserves behind the Russian advance. And there really wasn't any oil anywhere else within reach.

Anyway, after all is said and done, post mortems and 'what if's" aside, Hitler made his 'fatal' mistakes years before D-Day.
The majority of high ranking German Oficers, ministers etc, knew by JUne 1944 that it was simply a matter of time. Many knew even before that.

So, in the nutshell, even if D-Day had failed, I can't see how Germany could have survived for much longer than she did anyway. Maybe another year (just my unqualified 'guestimation').

However, I agree the political & geographical situation in Europe would certainly have been a different one from that which did emerge.
In fact, I think, had the Russians totally overrun Germany and 'absorbed ' it, there may well not have been a place called Germany afterwards.  ;D

[Woodlouse2002]

Maybe. Mine was just a hypothetical worst case scenario anyway.

[gaztop]

It is a well known fact, that  Germany and Japan used massive resourses conning the Allies into believing they had mass produced armaments.
The same way Russia did during the cold war.

Germany even went as far as building carboard factory roofs put up on scaffolding. From the air, they looked real! clever, very clever.

If D-Day had failed, we would have just used our air power to bomb the Boshe into submission.
I doubt we contemplated using nukes.

Anyone know if we did?

[ATI_7500]

If Hitler had deployed reinforcements for assisting the defenders on the beaches plus more aircraft which would have strafed the beaches,it would have been very likely that the invasion would have failed.

[tiger63]

On top of this the chances are that the Amerika bomber program would be nearing completion here by enabling the east coast of the united states to come within range of Germanys new terror and nuclear weapons. And few missiles on New York and Washington would reduce America's moral to almost nothing and probably force her to pull out of the war.

Thats what Japan thought. And all they did was wake the sleeping giant. The US wouldn't have given in that easily. Would have been just as easy for the United States to send a few B-29s with nukes to Europe as it was to send them to the Pacific. In other words, it would've just pissed the giant off.

[Woodlouse2002]

Thats what Japan thought. And all they did was wake the sleeping giant. The US wouldn't have given in that easily. Would have been just as easy for the United States to send a few B-29s with nukes to Europe as it was to send them to the Pacific. In other words, it would've just pissed the giant off.

Japan thought that she could destroy America's ability to fight in the pacific. Pearl Harbour was a naval base and few civilians were caught in the cross fire.

However, drop a couple of the extended range V2's that the Amerika bomber programme was working on with chemical or biological warheads in the middle of New York and suddenly you have hundreds of thousands of civilians dying right where they thought they were safe. This would have devestated American moral both at home and abroad and would probably have forced them to make negotiations with Germany.

I do firmly believe, that as in 1945 there was little or no knowledge about radiation, that america would not have hesitated very long to drop an atom bomb somewhere over germany. It would however have needed British, French and Russian approval.

[tiger63]

good point. The Japanese did not believe the Americans had the will to fight though (at least some of them didn't) I know we would've most likely cleared it with Britain and  maybe France. Don't know about clearing it with the Russians though. The main point of my above post was that the US wouldn't have given in that easily. I think it would'd have an "Pearl Harbor Effect" on the US people. Oh well, this is all hypothetical anyways.

[ATI_7500]

Hm,another side effect of a D-Day failure would have been russia negotiating with Germany about a peace agreement.
Stalin wanted a second front and if this wouldn't have happened,the Red Army would have taken quite a beating by german reinforcements from France.
Therefore,Stalin would have had negotiated with the outcome of a peace agreement and then...who knows? "Tigers" rolling through London?

[Hagar]

Interesting theories. "Panzers in London". First you would have to get them safely across the English  Channel. Don't forget that any successful cross-channel invasion would involve total air superiority. This was accepted back in 1940. I can't see Germany succeeding if the Allies had failed on D-Day. The Allies had almost total air superiority & this was unlikely to change. It would also involve a huge fleet of surface invasion vessels & escorts. Apart from U-boats the Kriegsmarine was confined in port with no suitable troop transports available. I'm not saying these could not have been built in a short time but getting them across those few miles of water would be a different matter.

[ATI_7500]

A small,heavily defended bridgehead and a tunnel would do the trick.

No,seriously. What if the V-2s were used against airfields and all the german experimental bombers went into mass production? Then more of those Me-262s and the allied air superiority would have been in a real danger.

Let's say the Luftwaffe would inflict such heavy losses to the alliied bombers that the USAAF and RAF commands decide to stop the bombing campaigns or to reduce them. This gives the german industry a break. Aircraft and other weapons can be built in greater numbers and can be sent to the eastern front or to the channel.
By now,the Luftwaffe finishes  -thanks to advanced aircraft- what it began in 1940, namely driving the RAF back from southern England. The channel is safe and with some quickly built landing craft, the Wehrmacht can open a bridgehead on the british mainland...and so on...

[Woodlouse2002]

Ther German's could never have invaded England. Simply because the Royal Navy was a hugely superior force to the Kreigsmarine. By 1944 all of Germany's powerful warships were either sunk or being hunted down and sunk one by one. So an invasion force would not have made it across the channel. Even if the Germans did have air superiority.

[ATI_7500]

Then leave this one out and I'll stick to my "tunnel" idea.
The bridgehead could have been held by parachutists and infantery units which went over the channel by air (Me-323, Ju-52).

[Woodlouse2002]

This again would have been impossible. It would have taken a long time to dig a tunnel. The units holding the bridgeheads would have had to have been resupplied by air. Something the Luftwaffe wasn't capable of doing in 1943 let alone late 44/45. Finally, England would have contained one British and two American armies. And enough hardware with which to invade northern europe. A bunch of Paratroops and air inserted Infantry would not have lasted five minutes. As they would have needed armour and artillery at least. Something not even 323's could provide with out holding operational airbases.

[Scorpiоn]

Back in that old Battle of Britain thread awhile back, I pretty much made up my mind that Germany's only hope was the Battle of Britain.  After that, it was pushin' daisies. If all, and I do mean all, German forces were commited to Operation Seelowe, then I think Germany would've succeeded, although with much bother from the Royal Navy.

By the time D-Day came 'round, Germany was lost no matter what.  There was no way it could have won or even survive by any stretch of the imagination.

[ATI_7500]

But if the Luftwaffe had complete air superiority they could have kept some Stukas airborne 24/7, like the RAF did in Africa and like the Alliies did over France.
Those Stukas may have been old,but with pilots like Rudel,it was the most dangerous Air-to-Ground weapon of the Luftwaffe.