Simviation Forums

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=477722795

according to this news story U.S. based Airlines are going to need 65,000 new pilots within the next 5 years. but it also seems that because of terrible labor / management  relations, extremely poor pay, lousy hours, constant revocation of retirement benefits etc. fewer and fewer young people actually desire to do the job. almost 50% less pilots are applying for commercial certificates these days too, so a critical pilot shortage will only become worse before it gets better. Its just so much easier for a would be airline pilot to live a lifestyle where he or she gains employment in another field and flies for recreation.

so far while working on the airline level i have seen at least a dozen flights canceled because there was nobody to fly the plane  ::) this happens when all of your regular crews are flying, all of your reserves have been assigned to open trips, and there is simply nobody left to occupy the seats up front!

Northwest Airlines - literally hundreds of flights canceled because of lack of air crews.

if you can stand the thought of qualifying for food stamps for the first 4 or 5 years of employment now is the time to get rolling with your flight training... Billions of dollars in management bonuses are counting on you!!!  ;D

I've watched a few instructors go through our club... get the hours built up and then take right-seat, regional jobs.  Many are back within 90 days. They'd rather put their degrees to use and actually make a living.. and then instruct on the side...  A few are making a good living doing aerial photography, and with charter jet companies..

life on a low wage and on reserve will kill your buzz in a hurry.

There is no fun involved in having to sit in a hotel room or in a "crash pad" for 5 straight days, or worse sit in an airport pilot lounge for 8 hours a day just waiting to get called.  :-/

the trick is to survive the regionals and make it to the majors... not many can do that

Even once you do make it to the majors, the calls don't stop coming. I had a friend who's father was a 767 pilot for American. It was to the point that he would never answer his phone, he would always have his wife or kids do it so that they could tell the airline that he "wasn't there" so he didn't have to go work on his days off.

We really need more pilots.

I start flight lessons within the next few weeks...i still have about 6 years to go before I graduate college, so ill CFI through college, build hours, and hopefully can get a decent regional job (an oxymoron if I ever heard one).  Hopefully ill get in before the next downturn.  Im not going to go to the majors probably.  I want to gointo flight test.

As for the need for pilots, this will hopefully give the regional guys some bargaining power since management needs them so desperately.

Even once you do make it to the majors, the calls don't stop coming. I had a friend who's father was a 767 pilot for American. It was to the point that he would never answer his phone, he would always have his wife or kids do it so that they could tell the airline that he "wasn't there" so he didn't have to go work on his days off.

We really need more pilots.

oh yeah your absolutely right, when they run out of reserves they will try to call you in on your day off, by the contract if you answer the phone and they give you an assignment you pretty much have to do it.

Im all to familiar with not answering the phone, if i dont recognize the area code, or it shows up as unknown caller on the caller ID- forget it... my days off are too precious for me to spend a day commuting to work to cover one round trip!!

first year payscales should be right at about $35 per hour, NOT $22.

i passenger recently asked me how much money i make during a candid conversation - of course i told him i couldnt talk about that with him. He asked if he could guess... he started at 50K a year... his eyes got wider and wider as i continued shaking my head "NO" until he finally got to $18,500 and i said "thats VERY close" and he was just wide eyed and said "My God!... but thats... thats approaching the poverty line!" i then explained to him that you dont make "really good" money until you get to the majors flying a 767 or something similar, but that takes years on top of years to get there and there is no guarantee you will ever get there. he looked shocked to realize he was about to board an aircraft that was being flown by someone who is paid half of what some large city garbage men are paid.

it was a little embarrassing to be honest

Uneducated, illegal immigrants, flipping burgers make more than that. A Dennys waitress makes TWICE that..  ::)

Ironically, I just finished another conversation about this with an instructor, who had to quit flying right-seat for Chautauqua Airlines (Continental's regional deal). He made MUCH more instructing and installing satellite dishes on the side..

Something is going give.. soon

I'd love love the job, unfortunatly I could never afford the flight school costs.
As for the pay scales, at current exchange rates, its roughly the same as what I earn stacking shelves in a grocery store. Dunno how you do it really. I know theres the whole, love of the job thing but you have to pay the bills too.

Ritter, that story really got me thinking.

For a while Ive just kind of accepted the low regional pay as something that is just a part of working an entry level job...but the thing is, its a job that requires a ridiculous amount of skill and training, comes with a lot of responsibility, and is a lot more than a way for pilots to build time before going to the majors...its time the pilots stood up and said that this has to change....not that the low pay will keep me away, but it is ridiculous.

Ritter, that story really got me thinking.

For a while Ive just kind of accepted the low regional pay as something that is just a part of working an entry level job...but the thing is, its a job that requires a ridiculous amount of skill and training, comes with a lot of responsibility, and is a lot more than a way for pilots to build time before going to the majors...its time the pilots stood up and said that this has to change....not that the low pay will keep me away, but it is ridiculous.

several carriers have contract negotiations soon... i feel that the demand for pilots is an awesome bargaining chip in the favor of the pilots unions.

though i would love to be making loads of cash to fly 15 or 20 days a month, im also a realist and i understand the economics these airlines face. I think a starting salary of over 30K annually is fair. If it wernt for the fact that i dont have kids, and that my wife and i live in one half of a duplex we own, and she works i would be sunk. when all is said and done we have a little money left in the bank at the end of the month, and the bills do get paid. but i cant afford to put money into my 401K and there is almost never room for luxury items or fun stuff.

fortunately through flight benefits and saving up cash my wife and i were able to spend one full day at Disney world last week. but thats probably the only major fun trip we will take for the next 24 months.

consider this - you have a doctor, a lawyer and a pilot next to one another. They all three have enormous training costs to reach the level of proficiency required to get a job. All of them spend years in their field gaining experience at some level or another. be it as a resident, Legal intern, or instructor.

all three have enormous responsibilities.

If the doctor screws up his patient dies or becomes seriously injured or scarred for life.

If the lawyer screws up his client could go to prison for decades of appeals before finally being proven innocent. Or the client loses millions to a frivolous lawsuit never to recover from such a financial burden.

If the pilot screws up him and his his passengers could die or become permanently disabled or burned beyond recognition.

But when you consider the first decade of income potential for the three professions, the pilot is the only one of the three even remotely close to the poverty line.

not much of a return on your investment if you ask me.

Unfortunately, it will probably take an accident (or two) where a pilot's inexperience is a consideration.

From what I've heard (and this is from people in, or trying to get in, but it's also second hand), if you have an instrument,  multi-engine and commercial rating, you can sit in a right seat tomorrow after they give you some minimal type experience. A college degree isn't even required.

I'm 48, and when I was young enough to ponder airline piloting as a future, you had to have perfect vision AND be fresh off a tour as a military pilot, before they'd even let you apply (which meant you were a college degreeed officer). NOW... there are people (I know personally) whom I wouldn't hire as a baby-sitter, flying these planes.

Pilot experience is lessening, and flight-crews are over-worked and stressed out. The whole system is over-worked; from ATC right down to the attendants.

I have a solution, but it will hurt aircraft makers and that whole industry....   Turn flyin back into what it was 30 years ago. An expensive luxury that you had to plan and save for. Airplanes were rarely packed to their limit.. passengers had more room per seat.. flight attendants were HAPPY with their jobs.. flight- crews were seasoned professionals whose mere appearance struck awe and inspired confidence.. airports were filled with people who knew flying was something special (my grandfather wouldn't get on a plane unless he sported suit/tie/hat/flowered lepal), now they have a bus-stop feel to them... over-booking was unheard of (and you were treated like insulted royalty if it happened)...

In a world of heightened security, this makes even more sense...

OK.. that's my humble opinion..  :-X

Brett your 100% correct, but in todays "wal-mart" society oddly enough the airline industry is the only industry i know of where the price goes DOWN when demand is UP... how does that make sense?? haha

we live in a world (i know your aware) in which people want to pay for what we in the industry call "cattle car service". what i mean is they want to spend the same money as they would spend on a grey hound bus ticket... but then they want to complain when the service isnt first class, or the seats or too small or there isnt enough leg room etc.

because we live in this wal mart / cattle car airline society where 90% of the customers expects Dom Perignon service at beer prices any airline that used the business practice of actually offering great service and comfortable seating for what it should cost - would be out of business in the first fiscal quarter!

I cant help but think back to the 30s and 40s and 50s when air travel was a suit and tie affair, and everyone was getting meals on silverware and china... but the cost of the tickets was commensurate with the services provided. Now because of the fact that every airline out there wants to be the cheapest, we see the trashiest people coming out of the wood work to fly for the lowest cost possible.

it has been often said that people vote with their wallet, and when the general flying public continues to search for the lowest fares on web pages or special offers the situation will only get worse. And no airline out there is going to be the first to lead the way to raising wages and ticket costs... because they will probably also be the last to do so  ;D

regarding pilot experience:

When i took my introductory flying lesson on October 13, 1998 the minimums at the company i worked for were something like "4 year degree, 1,500 hours total time with 1,000 hours multi engine and total instrument time must be at least 10% of applicant's total time" at the time when i had only recorded 20 or 30 hours in a Cessna 172 it seemed unachievable to acquire so many hours. The goal i had set for myself was so far out of reach i often wondered what the point of even continuing training was.

I received my Commercial Multi 2 whole weeks before September 11th 2001  ::) wonderful timing. The company i now work for was advertising it's minimums as "We are not currently interviewing pilot applicants"

so i got my CFI at the end of '01 and instruct for a while until perhaps things might start turning around.

when i interviewed in January of 2006 this particular company i work for now was advertising "4 year or 2 year degree preferred but not required - 1,000 total time with 200 multi engine, applicants with lower times will be considered on a case by case basis" i eked in with 1950 total and 200 hours multi on the button!

By the time i had finished my first year with the company our minimums had been lowered several times until we were accepting applications and hiring applicants with 300 and 400 hours total with as little as 100 multi!!!

fortunately the captains in the regional level are very experienced at this point, and all of these low time individuals will have to gain over 3,000 hours total time before being allowed to bid a captain seat.

after being in this field for almost a decade (which is not very long at all in the grand scheme), i can certainly see the wave pattern everyone talks about... right now there is a huge upswing much like we were experiencing in the late 90s its anyone's guess as to how long it will last. "expert's projections" are almost always wrong... so the trick is to get into the business before the door starts to close up again.

I love my job, i enjoy what i do, there is a lot of hassle and injustice but thats the real world for you i guess... if anyone else has the dream of doing the airline thing, and your flight times are even remotely close to the minimums i would encourage you to apply soon. if you dont like it.. get out, but dont get out after only 3 months. give it a year, wait until you get off reserve, life is 100 times better when you are a line holder and your not on reserve and no longer at crew scheduling's mercy.

Seniority in the airline world is everything, seniority equals pay - quality of life - equipment choice - upgrade time everything! If you get in NOW you will be that much more senior to the next guy, and that could make all the difference in your career.

Thanks for all this inside input.. it's interesting stuff..


I know the captains are experienced and competent (but not to the degree they were 20 years ago), but attrition (retirees and people burning out) is leaving holes. They're having trouble getting qualified 1st officers.. it's only a matter of time before the lower standards filter into the left seat.. it's already happening.