Simviation Forums

Which way do you think the trend will go? Do you think in 20 years time we'll all be flying in super jumbos like the A380, or will we all be zipping around in SST type aircraft?

Give a reason for your vote.

Ric B.

I think the trend will be towards smaller aircraft.  The only area of huge expansion in the UK seems to be towards the no frills sector.  I believe that as this market expands further the public will demand more destinations and more flights.  The companies will then need large numbers of smaller aircraft to serve the more diversified demand.

It could go the otherway but the companies, in my opinion, would need to start a sort of "bus" system where the large aircraft stops at say 6 destinations in a circular route and people get on and off at each stop, but I feel that this is unlikely.

Will

I think we'll be heading toward larger aircraft on the major commercial roots, with lighter aircraft working as taxis to smaller hubs, with the advent of improved telecommunications and the ability to have video conferencing the need for rapid travel has diminished, and the public have lost faith since the Concorde crash.

Ozzy

the 7E7 is the way forward:) i am definatly going to end up being the biggest supporter of this aircraft(if they drop the dreamliner name):)
but really there will be a place for super jumbos, boeing have even considered a new 747 which is  stretched
-400 series
in reality though it is impossible to even guess where we will be this time next year let alone 20 years. anything can happen, including more terrorist attacks(which have been hinted at)

I think that because of the rising costs of transporting people, we're going to see the trend go the other way.  Instead of big jumbo's and SSt's, we're going to start seeing more smaller, fuel efficient craft being developed.  While you can make more money by cramming more people into a big jumbo, it's my understanding, it also takes a small fortune to operate one.  Does anyone know what it takes to fly a 747 from London to New York?  Serious question, I don't know.

Some good points here.

If you work it out on a cost per-seat mile basis, the 747-400 is the worlds most efficient aircraft to operate. This of course mean you have to fill it....

I don't know what the exact cost of operating a 747 LHR-JFK, but I used to work for a tour operator, and I had to ring up and charter 4 SpanAir Airbus A320's from Prestwick to Majorca every week, they cost about

I think that commercially, larger aircraft are on the horizon.

This is representative of a trend which has been going on for years in the industry, culminating most recently with the loss of the SST  

Traffic congestion seems to be the most mentioned culprit.  There's just not enough sky to have that many planes in it.  

If we moved to smaller aircraft, we'd need even more airplanes to carry passengers around.  The traffic congestion problem would multiply tenfold!

Another indication of the industry leaning towards larger birds is the development of the A3XX, 777 and the 7E7...the manufacturers just don't seem to be interested in smaller planes.

However, if it bares any resemblance to the automobile industry, SUVs in particular, the trend will soon reverse, as the airlines realize that operating costs are too high for the revenue the aircraft generate.

For a few years, SUVs just got bigger and bigger and bigger.  Then they hit a brick wall, and the trend reversed.  Things like the Honda CRV, Jeep Liberty, and Kia Sportage became the new generation of SUV...This could easily occur within the airline industry.

IMHO, of course.

Japan uses a 747 SP specifically designed for short haul commuter  transport. It holds 600 passengers and flies to destinations one or two hundred miles from origin. Its much like a bus transit, leaving at a specific interval , no check in baggage, and you pay as you board, at one-third the cost. Somehow, the aircraft is mostly full when it leaves.

In comparison, in San Diego, CA, we have about thirty flights going to Los Angeles which is about 120 miles as the crow flies. Most of these flights (737,320, MDs) are barely half full, often a quarter full. In addition, San Diego has many commuter planes (twin turbos) flying to LA, often half full. It's a fact that driving  the distance is quicker than flying. Got efficiency?

I believe that much like land transport, we should concentrate on mass transportation. Get rid of the hub. Schedule busy routes using A380s or stretched 747, leaving every other hour (depending on the traffic) which can accomodate eight hundred to a thousand passengers at low fares. The New York to D.C. route will be an ideal route, also Boston to New York.

Expand the use of turbo-prop commuters to cover municipal airports. Converted H53 helos may be used.  But my answer to the  orginal question. More jumbos for mass air transit, more turbo-props for municipal.

Hogans Alley

"BOTH have place"

After watching many television shows on the airline industry, I believe there is no place for SSTs anymore. Airliners are more concerned with how many people they can cram into one of thoes aluminum sausages. I belive the future will be a mix of luxury and economy. Airlines such as QANTAS and Virgin Atlantic have plans to make the A380 the ultimate luxury liner. However the sardine can airliners such as My Travel will be exploiting the A380's high seating capacity. Closer to home, Jet Blue, Air Canada, and West Jet are promising to add more luxury to economy by adding satellite TV to their services. US Airways, Jets Go, and the other express airliners are planning to add more comfort on short routes for cheaper fairs. It is a golden age for the small express liners as the larger ones are charging too much. In other words, you wont see a lot of A380s and SSTs but rather A320s and B737s will continue to dominate the sky.