by Ivan » Thu Jul 03, 2003 3:19 am
Afghansitan was to please the public
Iraq was finishing what his father started...
But it seems to me he's trying to use the cultural divide in the middle-east to put pressure on saudi-arabia, while at the same time ensuring the flow of oil if Saudi-Arabia drops out.
For what other reason does he try to get an excuse to attack both Syria (not that much oil, reasonably large shia community, anti-israel) and Iran (huge gas reservers, 99% shiite, anti-israel) when he already has iraq (large oil reserves, 70-80% shiite).
Not because they are anti-israel (as most middle-east countries are,even if the official government says otherwise), but because of that other cultural denominator: religion.
Bin Laden, being from Saudi-arabia and having connections with the Wahabite sect, is 99% sure a sunnite muslim...
And for economical reasons:
At this moment, Saudi-arabia still is allied to the US, and used as a place to station troops. As planned, these troops will be moved to Iraq. With the troops moved out, Saudi-arabia isn't that useful anymore because the oil reserves aren't that big compared to the ones in iraq (which were exclusively managed by ELF, and that on a small scale)
So when they have control over iraq, they aren't dependent on saudi-arabia anymore, not for oil and not for stationing troops. Oil can be transported over land into Turkey, which is a NATO member , bypassing both the Suez canal, so the price can be lower, and the Hormuz strait, giving less chance of terrorist attacks on tankers.